October 10, 2024
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Coal India Stock Research Report by Emkay Global Financial Services
Analysis dated 01 October 2024
Sector: Coal
Price on Analysis date: Rs. 510.2
Target Rs. 600
(17.6% upside potential)
Target Period: 12 Months
Coal India Stock Research Report
Coal India has reported production of 51mt for September (10.4% MoM; -1% YoY). This aggregates to 341mt of production for 1HFY25. Likewise, offtake volumes were reported at 54mt for September, adding up to 363mt for 1HFY25. Coal India’s production volumes tend to be seasonal with the second quarter of any fiscal year softer than the rest of the quarters. The seasonality factor has averaged 41.4%/58.6% for 1H/2H, historically. Essentially, the production of 341mt in 1H implies full-year production of 825mt adjusted for seasonality, which is marginally lower than our estimate of 830mt and the company’s guidance of 838mt for FY25. We believe there is sufficient time and seasonalityled tailwind for the company to catch-up on production in 2HFY25. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with an unchanged target price of Rs600/share.
Production at ~341mt in 1HFY25:
Coal India has reported production of 50.9mt for September (10.4% MoM; -1% YoY). This aggregates to 341.3mt of production for 1HFY25 (2.5% YoY). Likewise, offtake volumes were reported at 54.4mt for September (4.4% MoM; -1.3% YoY), adding up to 362.7mt for 1HFY25 (1.7% YoY).
Seasonality-adjustment implies full-year production at ~825mt:
Coal India’s production volumes tend to be seasonal with the second quarter of any fiscal year softer than the rest of the quarters. Historically, the seasonality factor has averaged 41.4%/58.6% for 1H/2H. Essentially, the production of 341.3mt in 1H implies full-year production of 824.9mt adjusted for seasonality, which is marginally lower than our estimate of 830mt and the company’s guidance of 838mt for FY25. We believe there is sufficient time and seasonality-led tailwind for the group to catch-up on production in 2HFY25. Q4 tends to be the best performing quarter for Coal India’s operating performance.
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